Bengals vs Titans — Week 8, 2026
The Bengals took over trailing 36-29 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 36, Titans 36. Tied 36-36 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 19, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.0% for Bengals. Our model starts at 10.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to CIN 26 for 7 yards (18-C.Flott; 24-A.Taylor). ** Injury Update: TEN-53-A.Hill has returned to the game.
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to CIN 44 for 18 yards (18-C.Flott).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at TEN 39 for 17 yards (18-C.Flott).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Chase (18-C.Flott) [24-A.Taylor].
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to TEN 34 for 5 yards (57-J.Martin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins to TEN 18 for 16 yards (53-A.Hill).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.57 pts), and the weakest was Inside run (-1.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.08 pts |
| Quick out | -0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.68 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| Outside run | -0.88 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.12 pts |
| End-around | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.