Raiders vs Bills — Week 6, 2026
The Raiders took over trailing 30-23 with 4:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 30, Bills 33. Bills won 33-30 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 18, 4:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 12.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:36) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Bowers (15-G.Rousseau) [98-T.Sanders].
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Bowers (23-D.Alford).
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker [29-J.Kilgore].
- (4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.47 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.22 pts |
| Deep post | +0.20 pts |
| QB keep | +0.12 pts |
| Play action | +0.01 pts |
| Quick out | -0.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Outside run | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.