Falcons vs Bears — Week 6, 2026
The Falcons took over trailing 31-23 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 23, Bears 31. Bears won 31-23 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 28, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.4% for Falcons. Our model starts at 9.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 32 for 4 yards (94-A.Booker).
- (3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 4-J.Dotson.
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 14 for -8 yards (6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon) [6-K.Gordon], RECOVERED by CHI-12-D.Bush at ATL 28. 12-D.Bush to ATL 28 for no gain (65-M.Bergeron).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.75 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.75 pts |
| Deep post | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
| Spike it | -1.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.