49ers vs Falcons — Week 7, 2026
The 49ers took over trailing 26-20 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Falcons 29. Falcons won 29-20 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 23.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to SF 48 for 1 yard (53-K.Daniels).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to ATL 47 for 5 yards (3-J.Bates; 56-H.Perkins).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 17-J.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Daniels at SF 48. 53-K.Daniels pushed ob at SF 19 for 29 yards (71-T.Williams).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.05 pts |
| Quick out | -0.13 pts |
| Deep post | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.75 pts |
| Outside run | -1.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.96 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.97 pts |
| End-around | -1.98 pts |
| Spike it | -2.11 pts |
| Inside run | -2.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.