Panthers vs Packers — Week 8, 2026
The Panthers took over trailing 27-19 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 19, Packers 27. Packers won 27-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 45, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.6% for Panthers. Our model starts at 14.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 44 for -1 yards (95-D.Wyatt, 90-L.Van Ness).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie to CAR 48 for 4 yards (90-L.Van Ness).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (33-E.Williams).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 4-T.McMillan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.62 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.37 pts |
| QB keep | +0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.30 pts |
| Deep post | +0.07 pts |
| Play action | +0.02 pts |
| Quick out | -0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.96 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.40 pts |
| End-around | -1.43 pts |
| Spike it | -1.48 pts |
| Inside run | -1.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.