Giants vs Commanders — Week 5, 2026
The Giants took over trailing 27-20 with 4:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 1 timeout in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 27, Commanders 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 28, 4:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 13.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to NYG 34 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles; 20-Q.Martin).
- (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 40 for 6 yards (52-S.Styles; 2-A.Robertson).
- (3:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 43 for 3 yards (24-F.Moreau).
- (3:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 41 for 16 yards (24-F.Moreau).
- (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 38 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu).
- (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields to WAS 31 for 7 yards (24-F.Moreau).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 84-T.Johnson to WAS 17 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin). WAS-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.88 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.00 pts |
| Spike it | -1.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.