Patriots vs Dolphins — Week 8, 2026
The Patriots took over leading 24-19 with 2:02 left, 1st & 10 at the Dolphins 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 24, Dolphins 19. Patriots won 24-19 — the drive time expired.
Patriots ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Dolphins territory, 2:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.6% for Patriots. Our model starts at 95.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson to MIA 41 for 2 yards (20-J.Brooks).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left end to MIA 38 for 3 yards (4-J.Marshall).
- (1:51) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 33 for 5 yards (16-M.Taaffe; 10-J.Rodriguez). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:35) 10-D.Maye kneels to MIA 34 for -1 yards.
- (:58) 10-D.Maye kneels to MIA 35 for -1 yards.
- (:35) 10-D.Maye kneels to MIA 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.42 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -0.88 pts |
| Quick out | -1.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.28 pts |
| QB keep | -1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.81 pts |
| Play action | -2.96 pts |
| Curl route | -3.28 pts |
| End-around | -5.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.43 pts |
| Deep post | -9.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.