49ers vs Commanders — Week 6, 2026
The 49ers took over leading 23-17 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 23, Commanders 17. 49ers won 23-17 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 17, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.9% for 49ers. Our model starts at 93.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 16 for -1 yards (94-D.Payne).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 19 for 3 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 4-F.Luvu).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left end to SF 25 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 2-A.Robertson).
- (1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| QB keep | -1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.74 pts |
| Curl route | -3.04 pts |
| End-around | -5.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.10 pts |
| Deep post | -8.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.