Saints vs Giants — Week 6, 2026
The Saints took over leading 34-27 with 1:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Saints 34, Giants 27. Saints won 34-27 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 1:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 95.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:59) 5-K.Miller left tackle to NO 26 for 1 yard (93-S.Harris; 5-K.Thibodeaux).
- (1:55) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 31 for 5 yards (98-D.Reader).
- (1:51) 5-K.Miller right guard to NO 32 for 1 yard (91-D.Alexander).
- (1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.73 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.90 pts |
| Curl route | -3.27 pts |
| End-around | -5.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.35 pts |
| Deep post | -9.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.24 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.