Broncos vs Jaguars — Week 2, 2026
The Broncos took over leading 20-13 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 20, Jaguars 13. Broncos won 20-13 — the drive time expired.
Broncos ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.3% for Broncos. Our model starts at 89.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) 20-J.Coleman left guard to DEN 26 for 6 yards (51-V.Miller).
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 20-J.Coleman left tackle to DEN 27 for 1 yard (52-D.Hamilton; 44-T.Walker). JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle to JAX 44 for 29 yards (2-J.Lewis). Penalty on JAX-1-M.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (3:33) 20-J.Coleman right guard to JAX 41 for 3 yards (98-A.Regis; 51-V.Miller).
- (3:26) 20-J.Coleman left tackle to JAX 29 for 12 yards (29-E.Murray).
- (3:19) 20-J.Coleman up the middle to JAX 30 for -1 yards (91-A.Armstead). ** Injury Update: JAX-52-D.Hamilton has returned to the game.
- (2:35) 20-J.Coleman left end to JAX 18 for 12 yards (12-T.Hunter).
- (2:00) 10-B.Nix kneels to JAX 19 for -1 yards.
- (1:20) 10-B.Nix kneels to JAX 20 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 10-B.Nix kneels to JAX 21 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.55 pts |
| Quick out | -0.98 pts |
| QB keep | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -2.58 pts |
| Curl route | -2.82 pts |
| End-around | -4.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.88 pts |
| Deep post | -8.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.