Seahawks vs Chargers — Week 4, 2026
The Seahawks took over leading 30-23 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 30, Chargers 23. Seahawks won 30-23 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.3% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 95.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 35 for no gain (52-K.Mack).
- (2:10) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 32 for -3 yards (sack split by 92-J.Eboigbe and 45-T.Tuipulotu). PENALTY on LAC-92-J.Eboigbe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 32.
- (2:02) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Barner (20-C.Hart).
- (1:56) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to SEA 49 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 40 for -9 yards (43-T.Dye).
- (1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.75 pts |
| Quick out | -1.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.51 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -2.85 pts |
| Curl route | -3.30 pts |
| End-around | -5.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.29 pts |
| Deep post | -9.05 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.