Cowboys vs Cardinals — Week 8, 2026
The Cowboys took over leading 27-24 with 2:07 left, 1st & 10 at the Cardinals 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 30, Cardinals 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At the Cardinals 20, 2:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 92.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:07) 77-B.Jones reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams up the middle to ARI 20 for no gain (5-B.Browning).
- (2:02) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 26 for -6 yards (91-L.Collier).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to ARI 23 for 3 yards (1-Ma.Wilson; 35-K.King).
- (1:14) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.37 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-39.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.92 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.99 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.14 pts |
| QB keep | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Play action | -2.59 pts |
| Curl route | -2.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.55 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep post | -7.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.85 pts |
| Field goal | -39.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.