Raiders vs Jets — Week 8, 2026
The Raiders took over leading 35-33 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 38, Jets 33. Raiders won 38-33 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 35, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.7% for Raiders. Our model starts at 72.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) 4-M.Washington left tackle to LV 43 for 8 yards (95-D.Jackson; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (3:45) 4-M.Washington up the middle to 50 for 7 yards (6-D.Belton).
- (3:40) 4-M.Washington up the middle to NYJ 48 for 2 yards (6-D.Belton).
- (3:34) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to NYJ 41 for 7 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (3:26) 76-C.Rogers reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins up the middle to NYJ 40 for 1 yard (44-J.Sherwood; 96-J.Heflin).
- (2:38) 4-M.Washington right tackle to NYJ 37 for 3 yards (91-J.Briggs; 52-K.Enagbare).
- (2:00) 4-M.Washington left guard to NYJ 35 for 2 yards (95-D.Jackson).
- (1:17) 4-M.Washington up the middle to NYJ 35 for no gain (95-D.Jackson; 56-D.Davis).
- (:31) 14-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (-0.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | -0.08 pts |
| QB keep | -0.30 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.77 pts |
| Quick out | -0.85 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.97 pts |
| Take a knee | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.19 pts |
| Curl route | -1.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -1.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.22 pts |
| End-around | -4.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.70 pts |
| Deep post | -6.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.