Lions vs Jets — Week 3, 2026
The Lions took over tied at 24 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Lions 31, Jets 24. Lions won 31-24 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 35, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 58.9% for Lions. Our model starts at 59.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to NYJ 16 for 49 yards (8-A.Cisco).
- (3:15) 0-J.Gibbs left end to NYJ 17 for -1 yards (31-D.Bailey).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs to NYJ 11 for 6 yards (52-K.Enagbare).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-2.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.51 pts |
| QB keep | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Curl route | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.04 pts |
| Play action | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.85 pts |
| Deep post | -2.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.