Dolphins vs Jets — Week 7, 2026
The Dolphins took over leading 28-25 with 3:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 28, Jets 25. Dolphins won 28-25 — the drive time expired.
Dolphins ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 79.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:17) 0-O.Gordon right guard to MIA 42 for 14 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (3:10) 0-O.Gordon right tackle to MIA 49 for 7 yards (1-A.Thomas; 56-D.Davis).
- (3:04) 0-O.Gordon right guard to 50 for 1 yard (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 0-O.Gordon up the middle to NYJ 49 for 1 yard (31-D.Bailey).
- (2:00) 2-M.Willis up the middle to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs).
- (1:13) 2-M.Willis kneels to NYJ 48 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 2-M.Willis kneels to NYJ 49 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (-0.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| QB keep | -0.40 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.80 pts |
| Quick out | -0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.28 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Curl route | -1.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.85 pts |
| Play action | -1.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.01 pts |
| End-around | -4.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.44 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.07 pts |
| Deep post | -6.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.