Browns vs Jets — Week 5, 2026
The Browns took over leading 12-10 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at the Jets 43, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Browns 12, Jets 17. Jets won 17-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. In Jets territory, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.5% for Browns. Our model starts at 78.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins right end pushed ob at NYJ 43 for no gain (1-A.Thomas).
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy [44-J.Sherwood].
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston (44-J.Sherwood).
- (4:01) (Punt formation) 13-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 42, touched at CLE 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-49-T.Wallace at CLE 23.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.84 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.84 pts |
| Outside run | +0.26 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | -0.16 pts |
| Quick out | -0.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Curl route | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -3.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.84 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.49 pts |
| Deep post | -6.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.