49ers vs Broncos — Week 4, 2026
The 49ers took over leading 17-14 with 4:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 24, Broncos 14. 49ers won 24-14 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 31, 4:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.1% for 49ers. Our model starts at 78.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey.
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 40 for 9 yards (51-Q.Robinson).
- (3:12) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to SF 42 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 97-M.Roach).
- (2:29) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 44 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton; 40-J.Strnad).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB keep | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Curl route | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -3.25 pts |
| End-around | -3.79 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.94 pts |
| Deep post | -8.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.