Packers vs Lions — Week 7, 2026
The Packers took over tied at 17 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Packers 17, Lions 20. Lions won 20-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. In Lions territory, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.6% for Packers. Our model starts at 72.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle to DET 22 for no gain (46-J.Campbell).
- (4:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 8-J.Jacobs to DET 17 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 8-J.Jacobs.
- (3:25) 28-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-D.Wonnum), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (-0.02 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-29.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | -0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.90 pts |
| Curl route | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| Inside run | -1.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.99 pts |
| Deep post | -2.00 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.12 pts |
| Spike it | -2.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.49 pts |
| End-around | -3.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.44 pts |
| Field goal | -29.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.