Broncos vs Chiefs — Week 8, 2026
The Broncos took over trailing 24-21 with 2:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 44, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 28, Chiefs 24. Broncos won 28-24 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 44, 2:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.3% for Broncos. Our model starts at 38.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 20-J.Coleman to KC 5 for 51 yards (20-N.Williams; 32-N.Bolton).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 20-J.Coleman up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Play action | +0.13 pts |
| Quick out | -0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Deep post | -0.98 pts |
| Outside run | -1.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.61 pts |
| Inside run | -2.64 pts |
| End-around | -2.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.