Saints vs Lions — Week 1, 2026
The Saints took over trailing 31-24 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Saints 24, Lions 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.8% for Saints. Our model starts at 13.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 18 for -2 yards (54-A.McNeill).
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 18-B.Lance to NO 26 for 8 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin). DET-23-R.Ya-Sin was injured during the play.
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 21, recovered by NO-3-T.Etienne at NO 23. 3-T.Etienne to NO 27 for 4 yards (98-D.Wonnum; 55-D.Barnes).
- (3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to NO 47 for 20 yards (29-A.Maddox). ** Injury Update: DET-23-R.Ya-Sin has returned to the game.
- (2:38) 3-T.Etienne right tackle to NO 48 for 1 yard (21-R.McCreary).
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at DET 42 for 10 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
- (2:12) 5-K.Miller up the middle to DET 40 for 2 yards (66-E.O'Neill; 29-A.Maddox).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at DET 8 for 27 yards (12-T.Harper).
- (1:45) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (55-D.Barnes).
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 18-B.Lance is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| QB keep | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Play action | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Deep post | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Spike it | -1.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.