Ravens vs Browns — Week 6, 2026
The Ravens took over tied at 10 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 10, Browns 13. Browns won 13-10 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 38, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.8% for Ravens. Our model starts at 61.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to BAL 40 for 2 yards (5-Q.Williams; 24-D.Thomas).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short left to 4-Z.Flowers (28-E.McNeil-Warren). BAL-79-R.Stanley was injured during the play.
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 46 for 6 yards (28-E.McNeil-Warren).
- (2:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.98 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.74 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Curl route | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.15 pts |
| Play action | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.80 pts |
| Deep post | -3.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.