Giants vs Texans — Week 7, 2026
The Giants took over tied at 21 with 0:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Texans 21. Tied 21-21 — the drive time expired.
Giants ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 0:46 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.6% for Giants. Our model starts at 51.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:46) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to NYG 24 for 4 yards (24-D.Stingley) [55-D.Hunter].
- (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 30 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley).
- (:16) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to NYG 32 for 2 yards (29-M.Stewart).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.78 pts), and the weakest was Take a knee (-4.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.78 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.76 pts |
| QB keep | +1.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.55 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.25 pts |
| Deep post | -1.29 pts |
| Inside run | -2.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.39 pts |
| End-around | -2.75 pts |
| Spike it | -3.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.09 pts |
| Take a knee | -4.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.