Bills vs Rams — Week 5, 2026
The Bills took over tied at 34 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Bills 34, Rams 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 38, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.1% for Bills. Our model starts at 58.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) 4-J.Cook up the middle to BUF 41 for 3 yards (53-N.Landman).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LA 40 for 19 yards (37-Q.Lake).
- (2:50) 17-J.Allen left end ran ob at LA 27 for 13 yards (53-N.Landman).
- (2:45) 4-J.Cook up the middle to LA 27 for no gain (90-T.Davis).
- (2:00) 16-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.93 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.84 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Curl route | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.17 pts |
| Play action | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Deep post | -3.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.