Colts vs Chiefs — Week 2, 2026
The Colts took over tied at 27 with 3:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Colts 30, Chiefs 33. Chiefs won 33-30 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 18, 3:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 46.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 53.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:15) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor pushed ob at IND 32 for 14 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
- (3:09) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 38 for 6 yards (32-N.Bolton).
- (2:31) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 38 for no gain (95-C.Jones).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to IND 43 for 5 yards (20-N.Williams).
- (1:24) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 49 for 6 yards (32-N.Bolton; 23-D.Tranquill).
- (:43) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 84-T.Warren.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right [91-F.Anudike-Uzomah].
- (:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 16 for 6 yards (80-D.Burks; 29-C.Taylor-Britt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.69 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.50 pts |
| Curl route | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.12 pts |
| QB keep | +0.05 pts |
| Quick out | -0.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.42 pts |
| Inside run | -1.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.67 pts |
| Deep post | -1.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.07 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.