Ravens vs Saints — Week 2, 2026
The Ravens took over trailing 24-17 with 1:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 17, Saints 24. Saints won 24-17 — the drive turnover.
Ravens ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 29, 1:21 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.4% for Ravens. Our model starts at 6.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Walker.
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 36 for 7 yards (29-Q.Riley).
- (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to 50 for 14 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left guard to NO 37 for 13 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (:21) (No Huddle) 8-L.Jackson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left intended for 7-R.Bateman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Blackmon at NO 7. 23-J.Blackmon to NO 9 for 2 yards (7-R.Bateman).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.91 pts |
| Curl route | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Spike it | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.