Panthers vs Lions — Week 4, 2026
The Panthers took over leading 32-26 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 32, Lions 26. Panthers won 32-26 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 36, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.0% for Panthers. Our model starts at 90.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) 30-C.Hubbard right end to CAR 37 for 1 yard (5-C.Izien).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard.
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (2-E.Rakestraw) [8-D.Moore].
- (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to DET 46 for 4 yards (55-D.Barnes).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to DET 46 for no gain (91-T.Williams).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DET 46 for 0 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
- (2:12) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -0.88 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.92 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.33 pts |
| Curl route | -2.73 pts |
| End-around | -4.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.67 pts |
| Deep post | -8.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.