Vikings vs Lions — Week 8, 2026
The Vikings took over trailing 19-15 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 15, Lions 19. Lions won 19-15 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 28, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 28.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 3-J.Addison to MIN 32 for 4 yards (21-R.McCreary).
- (3:51) 27-J.Mason right end to MIN 33 for 1 yard (50-S.Gill-Howard; 44-M.Rodriguez).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison.
- (3:01) 19-B.Thorson punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 86-D.Carter.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.50 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | -0.19 pts |
| Quick out | -0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.72 pts |
| Deep post | -0.93 pts |
| Outside run | -1.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.24 pts |
| End-around | -2.28 pts |
| Inside run | -2.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.36 pts |
| Spike it | -2.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.