Seahawks vs Broncos — Week 6, 2026
The Seahawks took over trailing 14-11 with 3:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 14, Broncos 14. Tied 14-14 — the drive turnover.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 26, 3:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.7% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 32.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to SEA 20 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton; 99-Z.Allen).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 48 for 32 yards (22-B.Jones).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end to DEN 47 for 1 yard (29-J.McMillian).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 39 for 8 yards (30-T.Rapp).
- (1:31) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 15-T.Horton INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (15-T.Horton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.11 pts |
| Play action | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Deep post | -0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.