Buccaneers vs Vikings — Week 3, 2026
The Buccaneers took over trailing 20-16 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 16, Vikings 23. Vikings won 23-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Buccaneers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 29, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.4% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 26.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell ran ob at TB 42 for 13 yards (51-B.Cashman).
- (2:58) 1-K.Gainwell right end to TB 38 for -4 yards (17-K.Van Noy).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to TB 39 for 1 yard (2-I.Rodgers; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 1-K.Gainwell INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel [51-B.Cashman] at TB 41. 43-A.Van Ginkel to TB 41 for no gain (1-K.Gainwell). TB-6-B.Mayfield was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.75 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| Deep post | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.86 pts |
| Outside run | -0.90 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.95 pts |
| Inside run | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.