Patriots vs Bills — Week 4, 2026
The Patriots took over trailing 26-21 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 29, Bills 26. Patriots won 29-26 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 27, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.8% for Patriots. Our model starts at 22.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NE 41 for 14 yards (42-D.Williams).
- (3:47) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Henderson.
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to BUF 47 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs (1-M.Hairston).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism to BUF 28 for 19 yards (1-M.Hairston). ** Injury Update: BUF-94-L.Jackson has returned to the game.
- (2:25) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to BUF 23 for 5 yards (8-T.Bernard).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Williams.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.10 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Deep post | +0.79 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Outside run | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.