Rams vs Broncos — Week 3, 2026
The Rams took over trailing 23-19 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Rams 26, Broncos 30. Broncos won 30-26 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 23, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 27.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 22 for -1 yards (96-E.Uwazurike).
- (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield to LA 43 for 21 yards (22-B.Jones).
- (4:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 4-K.Mumpfield to DEN 48 for 9 yards (21-R.Moss).
- (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.10 pts |
| Deep post | -0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.