Titans vs Browns — Week 7, 2026
The Titans took over trailing 24-17 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Titans 24, Browns 27. Browns won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 37, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.8% for Titans. Our model starts at 16.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 20-T.Pollard to TEN 41 for 4 yards (5-Q.Williams). ** Injury Update: CLE-9-G.Delpit has returned to the game.
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 84-G.Helm to CLE 45 for 14 yards (9-G.Delpit).
- (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to CLE 43 for 2 yards (98-A.Huntington).
- (2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 84-G.Helm (21-D.Ward).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep middle to 82-D.Bellinger.
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to CLE 17 for 26 yards (33-R.Hickman) [54-S.Williams].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to CLE 19 for -2 yards (26-M.Harden).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor [9-G.Delpit].
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate pushed ob at CLE 1 for 18 yards (26-M.Harden).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left.
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.65 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.40 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.00 pts |
| Deep post | +0.00 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.53 pts |
| End-around | -1.57 pts |
| Spike it | -1.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.