Titans vs Giants — Week 3, 2026

What really happened

Final: Titans 7, Giants 12. Giants won 12-7 — the drive turnover.

Titans ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 23, 3:03 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 17.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson to TEN 35 for 12 yards (22-A.Phillips). ** Injury Update: NYG-12-C.Hood has returned to the game.
2. (2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to TEN 38 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader).
3. (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 5-E.Ayomanor (20-G.Newsome).
4. (2:16) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 20-T.Pollard pushed ob at NYG 44 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
5. (2:08) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to NYG 41 for 3 yards (52-A.Reese).
6. (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate to NYG 34 for 7 yards (12-C.Hood). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 14-C.Tate to NYG 35 for 6 yards (12-C.Hood). ** Injury Update: TEN-2-T.Spears has returned to the game. 10-second runoff.
7. (1:44) 1-C.Ward up the middle to NYG 33 for 2 yards (52-A.Reese).
8. (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Spears right tackle to NYG 33 for no gain (57-C.Golston).
9. (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Tate.
10. (:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 4-W.Robinson pushed ob at NYG 24 for 9 yards (22-A.Phillips).
11. (:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 4-W.Robinson (52-A.Reese).
12. (:44) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to NYG 7 for 11 yards (25-J.Pinnock).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.