Texans vs Colts — Week 3, 2026
The Texans took over trailing 16-10 with 4:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 17, Colts 19. Colts won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 4:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.0% for Texans. Our model starts at 23.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:40) 4-W.Marks right tackle to IND 45 for 9 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither; 25-A.Haulcy). ** Injury Update: IND-1-A.Gardner has returned to the game.
- (3:59) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 19-X.Hutchinson right end to IND 44 for 1 yard (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson to IND 27 for 17 yards (7-C.Ward). HOU-19-X.Hutchinson was injured during the play.
- (2:52) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to IND 12 for 15 yards (1-A.Gardner).
- (2:14) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 14-K.Boutte to IND 6 for 6 yards (51-A.Davis-Gaither).
- (2:00) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks left tackle to IND 1 for 5 yards (7-C.Ward).
- (1:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.11 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| Play action | +0.73 pts |
| Deep post | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.