Packers vs Jets — Week 2, 2026
The Packers took over trailing 17-14 with 4:32 left, 1st & 10 at the Jets 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Packers 17, Jets 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At the Jets 19, 4:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.2% for Packers. Our model starts at 55.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:32) 30-C.Brooks left guard to NYJ 15 for 4 yards (99-T.Sweat).
- (3:51) 30-C.Brooks left guard to NYJ 16 for -1 yards (56-D.Davis, 91-J.Briggs).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.
- (3:03) 28-T.Smack 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+4.55 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +4.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Curl route | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.01 pts |
| Spike it | -2.90 pts |
| Deep post | -4.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.