Vikings vs Colts — Week 7, 2026
The Vikings took over leading 13-10 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 16, Colts 10. Vikings won 16-10 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 38, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 80.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 78.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 27-J.Mason left tackle to MIN 45 for 7 yards (33-K.Harris; 94-J.Tillery).
- (3:35) 27-J.Mason right guard to IND 48 for 2 yards (91-J.Tuimoloau).
- (2:52) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 14-J.Jennings to IND 28 for 20 yards (25-A.Haulcy).
- (2:07) 1-K.Murray sacked at IND 36 for -8 yards (95-A.Adebawore).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 27-J.Mason right tackle to IND 34 for 12 yards (25-A.Haulcy; 33-K.Harris).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Felton (33-K.Harris).
- (1:44) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (-0.25 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.48 pts |
| QB keep | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.35 pts |
| Inside run | -1.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.89 pts |
| Curl route | -1.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.04 pts |
| Play action | -2.10 pts |
| End-around | -4.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.21 pts |
| Deep post | -7.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.