Packers vs Buccaneers — Week 4, 2026
The Packers took over leading 17-14 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at the Buccaneers 33, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 17, Buccaneers 14. Packers won 17-14 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Buccaneers territory, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.3% for Packers. Our model starts at 83.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd to TB 21 for 12 yards (45-J.Trotter). TB-31-A.Winfield was injured during the play.
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.89 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Quick out | -0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.80 pts |
| QB keep | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Curl route | -2.07 pts |
| Play action | -3.79 pts |
| End-around | -4.15 pts |
| Field goal | -5.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.67 pts |
| Deep post | -9.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.