Eagles vs Rams — Week 4, 2026
The Eagles took over leading 20-17 with 3:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 20, Rams 24. Rams won 24-20 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 40, 3:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.1% for Eagles. Our model starts at 79.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-T.Bigsby right end to PHI 41 for 1 yard (0-B.Young). PHI-8-T.Bigsby was injured during the play.
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 46 for 5 yards (47-W.Bailey; 53-N.Landman).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz (3-K.Curl).
- (3:07) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 11 yards (7-K.Ringo; 42-S.Mondon).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.76 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.76 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | -0.23 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick out | -0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Curl route | -1.51 pts |
| Play action | -1.58 pts |
| End-around | -3.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.62 pts |
| Deep post | -6.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.