Giants vs Cardinals — Week 4, 2026
The Giants took over leading 27-24 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Giants 36, Cardinals 24. Giants won 36-24 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 80.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to ARI 46 for 4 yards (31-W.Williams).
- (4:02) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to ARI 43 for 3 yards (51-R.Lopez; 52-J.Burch).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left end to ARI 39 for 4 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
- (2:31) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to ARI 40 for -1 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
- (2:25) 44-C.Skattebo left tackle to ARI 34 for 6 yards (51-R.Lopez; 3-B.Baker).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely.
- (2:16) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.79 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| QB keep | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.73 pts |
| Play action | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Curl route | -1.79 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.87 pts |
| End-around | -3.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.57 pts |
| Deep post | -6.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.