Buccaneers vs Steelers — Week 6, 2026

What really happened

Final: Buccaneers 19, Steelers 26. Steelers won 26-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Buccaneers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 3:07 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.2% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 27 for 1 yard (3-J.Brisker).
2. (2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka.
3. (2:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Irving.
4. (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels scrambles left end to TB 37 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).
5. (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 41 for 4 yards (3-J.Brisker).
6. (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to 50 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen; 5-J.Ramsey).
7. (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Godwin (35-J.Dean).
8. (1:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 7-B.Irving pushed ob at PIT 48 for 2 yards (41-P.Wilson).
9. (1:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left to 15-T.Johnson (35-J.Dean).
10. (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels sacked at TB 41 for -11 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.