Giants vs Saints — Week 6, 2026
The Giants took over trailing 34-27 with 0:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Giants 27, Saints 34. Saints won 34-27 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 29, 0:57 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.0% for Giants. Our model starts at 5.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:57) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy scrambles up the middle to NO 43 for 28 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (:41) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 9-I.Likely to NO 23 for 20 yards (21-J.Reid).
- (:25) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:24) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers to NO 14 for 9 yards (21-J.Reid).
- (:13) (No Huddle) 18-J.McCarthy spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.88 pts |
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| QB keep | +0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Spike it | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.