Saints vs Raiders — Week 3, 2026
The Saints took over trailing 35-27 with 1:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Saints 27, Raiders 35. Raiders won 35-27 — the drive turnover.
Saints ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 20, 1:38 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.0% for Saints. Our model starts at 3.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (7-Q.Walker).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (3-T.Johnson).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-5-E.Stokes at NO 35.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.44 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.19 pts |
| Deep post | +0.18 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Play action | -0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.09 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| Spike it | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.