Cowboys vs Buccaneers — Week 5, 2026
The Cowboys took over trailing 24-16 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 16, Buccaneers 24. Buccaneers won 24-16 — the drive turnover.
Cowboys ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 24, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 8.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 30 for 6 yards (23-T.Smith).
- (3:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-R.Flournoy to TB 44 for 26 yards (22-K.Scott).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 47 for 7 yards (45-J.Trotter).
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-J.Mingo to TB 35 for 12 yards (22-K.Scott).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to TB 33 for 2 yards (22-K.Scott).
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to TB 24 for 9 yards (22-K.Scott).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 87-J.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at TB 12. 34-A.Anzalone to TB 12 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Deep post | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.91 pts |
| Spike it | -0.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.