Chargers vs Seahawks — Week 4, 2026
The Chargers took over trailing 30-23 with 1:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 23, Seahawks 30. Seahawks won 30-23 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 11, 1:42 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.2% for Chargers. Our model starts at 5.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 28-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 20 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones; 20-J.Love).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 29 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones).
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (7-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (7-U.Nwosu) [7-U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at LAC 20. PENALTY on LAC-69-C.Strange, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.14 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.14 pts |
| Curl route | -0.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Play action | -0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.40 pts |
| Quick out | -0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.51 pts |
| QB keep | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.59 pts |
| Spike it | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| Outside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.