Steelers vs Browns — Week 4, 2026
The Steelers took over trailing 24-16 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 24, Browns 27. Browns won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 20, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.5% for Steelers. Our model starts at 7.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 14-R.Wilson to PIT 33 for 13 yards (26-M.Harden). PIT-14-R.Wilson was injured during the play.
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 45 for 22 yards (7-T.Campbell).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 39 for 6 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf pushed ob at CLE 11 for 28 yards (7-T.Campbell). CLE-7-T.Campbell was injured during the play.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-G.Bernard to CLE 11 for 5 yards (29-M.Blackmon).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Washington (33-R.Hickman). ** Injury Update: CLE-7-T.Campbell has returned to the game.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington.
- (1:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-A.Rodgers rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.62 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Deep post | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.38 pts |
| QB keep | +0.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.11 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.82 pts |
| Spike it | -0.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.