Rams vs Cardinals — Week 6, 2026
The Rams took over trailing 15-9 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Rams 16, Cardinals 18. Cardinals won 18-16 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 14, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.9% for Rams. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 17 for 3 yards (21-G.Williams; 35-K.King).
- (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 22 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
- (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 28 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 34 for 43 yards (21-G.Williams) [56-D.Robinson].
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at ARI 29 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
- (1:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 13 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker). ARI-55-D.Stills was injured during the play.
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to ARI 6 for 7 yards (50-J.Gibbens). LA-17-D.Adams was injured during the play.
- (:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 1 for 5 yards (29-D.Burke). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARI-55-D.Stills has returned to the game.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.24 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.24 pts |
| Curl route | +0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.06 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Play action | -0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.42 pts |
| QB keep | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.77 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.95 pts |
| Spike it | -1.26 pts |
| Outside run | -1.41 pts |
| Inside run | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.