Cardinals vs Giants — Week 4, 2026
The Cardinals took over trailing 30-24 with 2:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 24, Giants 36. Giants won 36-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 33, 2:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.0% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 12.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson to ARI 44 for 11 yards (20-G.Newsome). Penalty on NYG-20-G.Newsome, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 47 for 9 yards (20-G.Newsome).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride (27-T.Nubin).
- (1:54) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to NYG 39 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 5-K.Thibodeaux).
- (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to NYG 34 for 5 yards (52-A.Reese).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson to NYG 26 for 8 yards (27-T.Nubin).
- (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.McBride [3-A.Carter].
- (:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to NYG 22 for 4 yards (52-A.Reese) [91-D.Alexander].
- (:22) 66-J.Williams reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 14-Mi.Wilson.
- (:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 14-Mi.Wilson (22-A.Phillips).
- (:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride (2-D.Banks).
- (:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| Deep post | +1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.81 pts |
| QB keep | +0.69 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Spike it | -1.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.