Bears vs Vikings — Week 2, 2026
The Bears took over trailing 9-3 with 1:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bears 3, Vikings 9. Vikings won 9-3 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 1:00 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.0% for Bears. Our model starts at 9.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short left to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at CHI 41 for 6 yards (23-J.Pierre).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to MIN 41 for 18 yards (7-B.Murphy).
- (:39) (No Huddle) 17-T.Bagent spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:38) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (2-I.Rodgers).
- (:31) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short right to 10-L.Burden to MIN 12 for 8 yards (23-J.Pierre).
- (:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (2-I.Rodgers). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:06) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland.
- (:01) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.17 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| Deep post | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.11 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.87 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.