Bengals vs Jaguars — Week 4, 2026
The Bengals took over trailing 22-17 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 17, Jaguars 22. Jaguars won 22-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bengals ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 1:44 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.3% for Bengals. Our model starts at 11.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at CIN 46 for 29 yards.
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki ran ob at JAX 36 for 18 yards [41-J.Hines-Allen].
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (50-B.Combs).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Meyers.
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki.
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley [41-J.Hines-Allen].
- (:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.88 pts |
| Curl route | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.15 pts |
| QB keep | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.06 pts |
| Quick out | -0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Outside run | -1.12 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
| Inside run | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.