Chargers vs Broncos — Week 5, 2026
The Chargers took over trailing 23-17 with 1:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Broncos 23. Broncos won 23-17 — the drive time expired.
Chargers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 31, 1:02 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.2% for Chargers. Our model starts at 8.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 34 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar (40-J.Strnad).
- (:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to LAC 48 for 9 yards (26-D.Key).
- (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 39 for 13 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
- (:04) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at DEN 46 for -7 yards (29-J.McMillian).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.25 pts |
| Curl route | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| Spike it | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.